- Critical minerals market October 2026 led lower by lithium and cobalt
- Lithium carbonate down 19.1% on SMM’s battery-grade benchmark
- Cobalt sulphate down 14.7% and cobalt metal down 14.0%
- Palladium down 11.1%, silver down 8.7%, platinum down 5.3%
- Chromium metal up 10.2% and antimony up 3.2%
- Copper and aluminium domestic premiums to LME widen again
The critical minerals market October 2026 opened with sharp declines in battery metals. Battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 19.1% to $18,258.32 per tonne on SMM, and cobalt sulphate fell 14.7% to $8,995.35 per tonne, its second consecutive double-digit decline. Palladium lost 11.1% and silver 8.7%, while chromium metal rose 10.2% and antimony extended its rebound by 3.2%. On each price page’s primary SMM benchmark, 19 of the 30 metals tracked by CMN fell and 11 rose.
Critical minerals market October 2026: standout moves
| Metal | Move vs September | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Lithium carbonate (battery-grade) | -19.1% | Reverses September’s 9.2% rebound |
| Cobalt sulphate (China) | -14.7% | Second consecutive double-digit decline |
| Cobalt metal (China domestic) | -14.0% | Rotterdam premium widens to about 37.7% |
| Palladium (China domestic) | -11.1% | Imported palladium down 11.6% |
| Chromium metal (China 99%) | +10.2% | First rise after two monthly declines |
| Silver (SMM 1# ingot) | -8.7% | Retraces about two thirds of September’s 15.4% gain |
| Tungsten APT (China domestic) | -7.4% | Rotterdam ferrotungsten down 19.0% |
| Nickel (LME 3-month) | -7.2% | Back in the $15,000 to $16,000 range of the 2023 to 2025 lows |
Critical minerals market October 2026: battery metals fall together
SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate (SMM-Li-LC-001) was $18,258.32 per tonne on 30 September, below every 2026 reading on CMN’s lithium page. Industrial-grade carbonate fell 18.7% to $17,737.93 per tonne. The move follows a 12.1% fall in August and a 9.2% rebound in September.
China cobalt sulphate and cobalt metal both fell sharply, with cobalt metal down 14.0% to $38,955.05 per tonne. Rotterdam cobalt metal eased only 4.7% to about $53,638 per tonne ($24.33 per lb), which widened its premium over China domestic to roughly 37.7% from 24.3% in September. Cobalt chloride, tetroxide and oxide each fell more than 15%.
Upstream, SMM cobalt hydroxide payable fell to 71% from 79%, while the hydroxide processing fee edged up 1.0% to $4,499.75 per tonne. A lower payable alongside a higher fee shifts the economics toward refiners. The Cobalt Institute publishes global cobalt supply and demand data.
Nickel eased for a second consecutive month. SMM Shanghai 1# cathode fell 4.1% to $18,377.27 per tonne, and the LME 3-month price closed at $15,626 per tonne on 2 October, down 7.2%.
Base metals: domestic premiums to LME widen
LME 3-month closing prices on 2 October were $3,100.50 per tonne for aluminium (down 5.9%), $3,710.50 for zinc (down 5.8%), $54,013 for tin (down 1.5%) and $14,258.50 for copper (down 0.8%). Full contract data is published by the London Metal Exchange.
SMM 1# copper cathode rose 1.4% to $16,557.38 per tonne, widening its premium over LME to 16.1% from 13.6%. SMM domestic prices include 13% VAT, so the premium excluding VAT is about 3%.
The same VAT effect shapes aluminium (SMM A00 at $3,572.86, a 15.2% premium), zinc (SMM 0# at $3,931.93, a $221.43 premium after near parity in September) and tin (SMM 1# at $60,893.29, a 12.7% premium, narrowing for a second month). Excluding VAT, domestic zinc and tin sit at or below LME.
Precious and platinum group metals: palladium and silver retreat
SMM China palladium fell 11.1% to $1,331.88 per troy ounce and platinum eased 5.3% to $1,921.51. Imported palladium fell 11.6% to $1,378.12, reversing September’s gains of 7 to 8%.
The SMM 1# silver ingot fell 8.7% to $2,204.68 per kg, and all four tracked grades moved by the same percentage. That retraces about two thirds of September’s 15.4% rise.
Technology and minor metals: tungsten falls, chromium rebounds
SMM China tungsten APT fell 7.4% to $72,368.03 per tonne, faster than September’s 2.0% decline, while APT CIF Rotterdam eased 3.3% to $2,900 per mtu. Ferrotungsten CIF Rotterdam (75%) fell 19.0% to $170 per kg W, and tungsten ingot FOB fell 13.8% to $187.50 per kg.
China 99% chromium metal rose 10.2% to $9,813.10 per tonne after two monthly declines. High-carbon ferrochrome moved between -2.1% and +0.2%, so the swing remains concentrated in the metal tier.
China 99.65% antimony rose 3.2% to $13,289.40 per tonne, extending September’s 18.0% rebound, while the European assessment eased 2.8% to $19,250. Europe’s premium over China narrowed to about 45% from 54%.
Bismuth split by market: SMM China fell 7.1% to $16,973.59 per tonne, while US and European ingot assessments rose 8.3% and 8.8% to $20.85 and $21.05 per lb, roughly 2.7 times the China domestic price.
SMM Pr-Nd oxide rose 0.6% to $97,302.11 per tonne ($97.30 per kg) on the rare earths page, the third consecutive cycle below the $110 per kg DoD-backed price floor.
Hafnium (Grade 3 oxide, down 2.8%), rhenium (powder, down 0.9%) and niobium (99.5% pentoxide, down 2.7%) each eased. Hafnium has now declined for two consecutive months and niobium for three, and rhenium’s ammonium perrhenate tier fell 1.1% for a third straight month.
Zirconium oxychloride rose 4.0%, vanadium metal 1.6% and molybdenum oxide FOB China 0.8%. Titanium sponge, silicon and tantalum pentoxide each rose 0.15%, and tellurium rose 0.3%. Magnesium fell 2.3%, manganese metal 1.3%, graphite flake 0.9% and alumina 0.2%.
Critical minerals market October 2026: price tables by metal group
SMM figures are dated 30 September 2026 unless stated. LME figures are 2 October closing prices, and Rotterdam and Europe assessments carry dates between 1 and 4 October.
Base metals
| Metal | Benchmark | October price | Change vs September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | SMM 1# cathode / LME 3-month | $16,557.38 / $14,258.50 per tonne | +1.4% / -0.8% |
| Nickel | SMM Shanghai 1# / LME 3-month | $18,377.27 / $15,626 per tonne | -4.1% / -7.2% |
| Aluminium | SMM A00 / LME 3-month | $3,572.86 / $3,100.50 per tonne | -1.2% / -5.9% |
| Zinc | SMM 0# / LME 3-month | $3,931.93 / $3,710.50 per tonne | -0.6% / -5.8% |
| Tin | SMM 1# / LME 3-month | $60,893.29 / $54,013 per tonne | -2.0% / -1.5% |
| Alumina | SMM alumina index | $396.86 per tonne | -0.2% |
| Magnesium | SMM Shaanxi 9990 ingot | $2,065.78 per tonne | -2.3% |
| Manganese | SMM major areas EMM | $2,609.39 per tonne | -1.3% |
Battery metals
| Metal | Benchmark | October price | Change vs September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | SMM battery-grade carbonate | $18,258.32 per tonne | -19.1% |
| Cobalt metal | SMM China / Rotterdam | $38,955.05 per tonne / about $53,638 per tonne | -14.0% / -4.7% |
| Cobalt sulphate | SMM China cobalt sulphate | $8,995.35 per tonne | -14.7% |
| Graphite | SMM flake -194 mesh nationwide | $320.13 per tonne | -0.9% |
| Rare earths | SMM Pr-Nd oxide | $97,302.11 per tonne | +0.6% |
| Vanadium | SMM vanadium metal | $217.08 per kg | +1.6% |
Technology and minor metals
| Metal | Benchmark | October price | Change vs September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antimony | SMM China 99.65% / Europe | $13,289.40 / $19,250 per tonne | +3.2% / -2.8% |
| Tungsten | SMM APT China / APT CIF Rotterdam | $72,368.03 per tonne / $2,900 per mtu | -7.4% / -3.3% |
| Molybdenum | SMM oxide FOB China | $36.20 per lb Mo | +0.8% |
| Chromium | SMM China 99% metal | $9,813.10 per tonne | +10.2% |
| Titanium | SMM sponge 0-grade | $6,616.41 per tonne | +0.15% |
| Silicon | SMM East China #553 | $1,405.06 per tonne | +0.15% |
| Niobium | SMM 99.5% pentoxide | $51.30 per kg | -2.7% |
| Tantalum | SMM 99.5% pentoxide | $578.94 per kg | +0.15% |
| Zirconium | SMM oxychloride | $2,995.97 per tonne | +4.0% |
| Hafnium | SMM Grade 3 oxide | $644.73 per kg | -2.8% |
| Rhenium | SMM rhenium powder | $6,504.90 per kg | -0.9% |
| Bismuth | SMM China 99.99% / US ingot | $16,973.59 per tonne / $20.85 per lb | -7.1% / +8.3% |
| Tellurium | SMM China 99.99% | $105.07 per kg | +0.3% |
Precious and platinum group metals
| Metal | Benchmark | October price | Change vs September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver | SMM 1# ingot | $2,204.68 per kg | -8.7% |
| Platinum | SMM China platinum | $1,921.51 per troy oz | -5.3% |
| Palladium | SMM China / imported | $1,331.88 / $1,378.12 per troy oz | -11.1% / -11.6% |
Critical minerals market October 2026: what to watch in November
The September report covered lithium’s 9.2% rebound and cobalt sulphate’s 11.4% fall. October reverses the lithium rebound and extends the cobalt sulphate decline: lithium has now posted three consecutive monthly moves of 9% or more, and cobalt sulphate has fallen by double digits twice running. The next SMM readings will show whether the declines hold or reverse.
Other threads carry over. Nickel on the LME is back at the 2023 to 2025 lows, and the Europe premium over China domestic antimony has narrowed twice. Ferrotungsten in Rotterdam fell 19.0% in one month, and palladium has reversed September’s gains in full. All forecasts and price readings are subject to revision.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Prices are subject to change without notice.
What happened to critical minerals prices in October 2026?
Battery metals fell the most. Lithium carbonate, cobalt sulphate and cobalt metal recorded the largest declines among the metals CMN tracks, and nickel on the LME returned to the range of its 2023 to 2025 lows. Chromium metal and antimony were among the larger gainers. The standout moves table in the report lists each change against September.
Why did the lithium price fall in October 2026?
SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate fell sharply after a rebound in September. Mine restarts in Australia and China, thin spot liquidity and changes to battery tax policy have all added to volatility this year, but price data alone does not establish the cause of any single month’s move. The lithium price page shows the current benchmark.
Why are SMM domestic prices higher than LME prices for copper, aluminium and nickel?
SMM China domestic prices include 13% VAT, while LME prices do not. Most of the headline premium of SMM over LME is therefore tax, and the premium excluding VAT is much smaller. Import premiums and local supply conditions explain the remainder.
Which metals does CMN’s monthly critical minerals market report cover?
The report covers every metal with a price page on CMN, grouped as base metals, battery metals, technology and minor metals, and precious and platinum group metals. Each metal links to its own price page with full tables and history.
Where does CMN source critical minerals prices?
CMN uses Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) as its primary price source, with LME closing prices as the international benchmark for copper, nickel, aluminium, zinc and tin. Currency conversions use XE.com mid-market rates, and production context comes from USGS.
How often does CMN publish the critical minerals market report?
Monthly, in the first week after SMM’s month-end data. Each edition has its own URL, so earlier months stay available for comparison.
