Nickel Price Today: LME Spot, History & Forecast

The nickel price on the SMM Shanghai 1# cathode benchmark stands at $19,157.97 per tonne ($19.16/kg) as of 4 September 2026, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), down from $19,694.69/tonne in August. On the international market, the LME 3-month benchmark trades at $16,835/tonne, down from $17,288/tonne — both benchmarks have eased together this cycle, a reversal from August’s joint rally on Indonesian MHP export inspection delays. The pullback suggests the Indonesian export disruption flagged last cycle may be easing rather than escalating further. Battery-grade nickel sulphate is separately benchmarked at $4,490.73/tonne on SMM as of 4 September 2026. For the broader monthly price context see our Critical Minerals Market June 2026 analysis.

Nickel trades across three distinct product markets. Class 1 nickel — refined metal including briquettes, cathodes, and pellets at minimum 99.8% purity — is the LME-deliverable benchmark used in electroplating, superalloys, and certain battery applications. Class 2 nickel, primarily nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferronickel, is lower-purity material produced largely in Indonesia and China for the stainless steel industry. Nickel sulphate is the battery-grade intermediate produced from Class 1 nickel or HPAL processing streams, relevant to EV battery supply chains.

Current Nickel Price

Last updated: 4 September 2026. China Domestic figure is the SMM Shanghai 1# cathode benchmark, VAT-inclusive (13%). International figure is the LME 3-month benchmark.

Nickel Price History

The structural price story through 2023–2025 was defined by the Indonesian supply surge: Chinese-financed HPAL laterite capacity that transformed global supply balances and drove prices to multi-year lows around $15,000–16,000/tonne. The April 2026 rally to a 23-month high marked a meaningful break from that suppressed range, and August’s renewed strength — driven by Indonesian MHP export inspection delays — extended that pattern. This cycle’s pullback in both benchmarks together suggests that specific disruption may be resolving, though Indonesian supply-side risk clearly remains the dominant swing factor for the market overall.

Historical figures sourced from LME official data and Trading Economics. Estimates flagged — treat as directional. Production context: USGS National Minerals Information Center.

Nickel Price in USD, EUR, GBP and Other Currencies

Exchange rates: XE.com, September 2026. Conversions calculated from the China Domestic (SMM) benchmark. CNY figures reflect the USD/CNY mid-market rate and do not represent the SMM domestic Chinese price, which incorporates VAT and may differ materially.

Nickel Price Per Gram, Per Ounce and Per Pound

What Is Driving the Nickel Price

Indonesian Export Inspections and Cost Floor

Indonesia is now the world’s dominant nickel producer, accounting for more than 50% of global output. August’s price strength traced to Indonesian authorities increasing inspections of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and other nickel product shipments over possible rare-earth content, prompting Tsingshan Holding Group — the world’s largest nickel producer — to suspend some export loadings. This cycle’s pullback in both benchmarks together is consistent with that specific bottleneck easing, though it should be confirmed against fresh Indonesian regulatory news rather than inferred from price movement alone. This sits alongside the earlier April 2026 cost-floor revision to Indonesia’s nickel ore benchmark pricing formula and the Middle East sulphur supply disruption affecting HPAL processing costs — together, multiple distinct Indonesian-linked supply shocks within a single year underscore how central Indonesian policy and logistics have become to global nickel pricing.

Key Indonesian HPAL operators include Tsingshan Holding Group, Lygend Resources, Harita Nickel (IDX: NCKL), Trimegah Bangun Persada, and Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC). PT Vale Indonesia (IDX: INCO, Rio Tinto 33% shareholder) operates laterite operations in Sulawesi producing nickel-in-matte. The Indonesia nickel supply crisis analysis covers the sulphur disruption and its processing cost implications in full.

Supply Deficit and INSG Projection

The International Nickel Study Group projects a global primary nickel price deficit of 32,200 tonnes in 2026 — consumption at 3.75 million tonnes against production of 3.72 million tonnes — which would mark the first supply shortfall since 2021. Primary nickel production is forecast to fall 4.2% year-on-year, reversing the supply growth that suppressed prices through 2023–2025. This structural deficit backdrop makes the market more sensitive to episodic export disruption of the kind seen last cycle, since there is less spare supply cushion to absorb delays, even as this month’s pullback shows the market can ease again once a specific disruption resolves.

Battery Demand vs Stainless Steel

Stainless steel accounts for approximately 70% of global nickel demand by volume, making it the dominant end-use. Chinese stainless steel mills — the world’s largest producers — primarily absorb Class 2 nickel (NPI and ferronickel) from Indonesia and China. Battery demand for nickel, via nickel sulphate for NMC cathodes, currently represents roughly 10–15% of total demand — a growing share but still secondary to stainless steel. NMC 811 (80% nickel, 10% manganese, 10% cobalt) high-nickel cathode chemistry is the key battery growth vector, driving demand from manufacturers including CATL (SZ: 300750), LG Energy Solution (KRX: 373220), and Panasonic (TYO: 6752). The emerging electrolyser demand angle for green hydrogen applications is covered in our nickel green hydrogen outlook.

Western Producer Curtailments

BHP (ASX/NYSE: BHP) announced a review and effective pause on its Nickel West operations in Western Australia in 2024, citing sustained uneconomic market conditions. IGO Limited (ASX: IGO) closed its Cosmos nickel project in 2024. These curtailments remove Class 1 nickel sulphide supply — the specific product relevant to non-Chinese battery supply chains — at a time when demand for traceable, non-Chinese nickel is growing. At $19,157.97/tonne domestic, this cycle’s pullback moves the gap to the estimated $20,000–22,000/tonne restart threshold slightly wider again after last month’s narrowing.

Nickel Price: Western Supply Development

In Canada, Vale (NYSE: VALE) continues to operate its Sudbury and Thompson nickel sulphide operations, providing a stable Western Class 1 supply source. Vale reported a 13% increase in its nickel reserves and resources in 2025, supporting medium-term supply potential. In Europe, Terrafame (Finland, state-majority-owned) operates as the EU’s only significant active nickel-cobalt producer, using bioheap leaching on Sotkamo polymetallic ore — providing a domestically produced battery-grade nickel source of growing strategic relevance under EU Battery Regulation traceability requirements. Russia’s Norilsk Nickel / Nornickel (MCX: GMKN) remains the world’s largest nickel sulphide producer, though Western sanctions exposure has complicated its role in Western supply chains.

The Oceania critical minerals page covers Australian nickel operations in detail. The EU Critical Raw Materials Act supplier guide covers European traceability requirements for battery-grade nickel.

Nickel Price Outlook

This cycle’s pullback, easing alongside the apparent resolution of the Indonesian MHP inspection bottleneck, tempers rather than reverses the near-term bullish case for the nickel price. The INSG deficit projection and ongoing structural sulphur-cost pressure remain in place even as this specific episode eases. Whether the domestic price stabilises in a lower range or resumes testing the $20,000/tonne level depends heavily on whether Indonesian export conditions remain settled or another disruption emerges.

A bullish path to $20,000–21,000/tonne would require renewed Indonesian export friction, a dovish Federal Reserve pivot, and sustained Chinese stainless demand. A base-case consolidation in the $17,000–19,500/tonne domestic range now looks more consistent with this cycle’s pullback than the $18,000–20,000/tonne range cited last month. Fastmarkets and Wood Mackenzie had previously indicated a recovery range of $17,000–19,000/tonne through 2026 — this cycle’s reading has moved back within that range after briefly testing above it. All forecasts remain subject to revision and should be treated as indicative ranges. The Nickel Institute publishes regular supply and demand data for the global nickel market.

Medium-term, if Indonesian HPAL expansion continues now that the inspection bottleneck appears to be easing, analysts expect a structural ceiling on prices unless Western demand for traceable, non-Chinese nickel creates a sustained premium for Class 1 sulphide supply.

Nickel vs Cobalt

Nickel and cobalt are co-inputs in NMC battery cathode chemistry. However, their price dynamics differ significantly: nickel is primarily a stainless steel metal with battery demand as a secondary driver, while cobalt’s largest non-battery end-use is superalloys for aerospace and defence. The Indonesian supply surge has been specific to nickel — no equivalent low-cost laterite production boom has occurred in cobalt, which remains DRC-dependent. For the current cobalt price and outlook, see our cobalt price tracker.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Prices are subject to change without notice.